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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.